Effect Comparison of Determining Parameter Methods in GM (1,1)
: Ke-Fang Zeng and Yong Wei : GM (1,1), Near-homogeneous index series, Development coefficient, Prediction coefficient, Exponential coincidence property, Coefficient coincidence property
: For the GM (1, 1) model is applicable to nearlyexponential case, the concept of using minimum sum oferror square is proposed to develop new predictionmode. At first, two kinds of simple and quick methodsto estimate the development coefficient a aredetermined directly via approximately estimating thecommon ratio. Then let the response coefficient c of thetime response sequence undetermined, and thesimulating formula of the original sequence is obtainedby reducing. Again, using four different objectivefunctions to determine the prediction coefficients, andeight kinds of prediction models are constructedthrough the combination. While adding the originalmodel and other existing four optimization models, atotal of thirteen kinds of prediction models areobtained for simulation comparison at the same time.Through example calculation, finding that startingfrom the angle of average relative error, using thearithmetic mean of the original sequence stepwise toidentify the development coefficient and predictioncoefficient is the best way to construct the model, andthe result can be used as reference in prediction field.
Journal of Grey System(Volume 16) : 175~180 : 2013
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